Environmental Impact of Large Investment Projects

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concept	
Kåre P. Hagen and Gro Holst Volden (editors)
Environmental Impact of 
Large Investment Projects
An Anthology by 16 Norwegian Experts 
Concept report No 48	
c
oncept

concept	
Kåre P. Hagen and Gro Holst Volden (editors)
Environmental Impact of 
Large Investment Projects
An Anthology by 16 Norwegian Experts 
Concept report No 48

Conce	pt 	Repor	t No. 48 	
Environmental Impact 	of 	Large Investment Projects: 	
An Antholog	y by 1	6 Norwegian Experts 	
Kåre P. Hagen (ed.) 
Norwegian 	Sch	ool of Economics (NHH) 	
Gro Holst 	Volden (ed.) 	
Norwegian 	Un	iversity 	of S	cience 	and 	Technology 	(NTNU) 	
English summary 
Original title: Investeringsprosjekter 	og 	miljøkonsekvenser. 	
En antologi med bidrag fra 	16 	forskere 	
ISSN: 0803-9763 	(pape	r version) 	
ISSN: 0804-5585 	(we	b version) 	
ISB	N: 	978	-82	-93253-	51	-8 (paper 	version) 	
ISBN: 978-	82	-93253-	52	-5 (web version)	 	
Date: June 2016 
Publisher: Ex ante Academic Publisher 	
Concept Research Program 
Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) 
NO	-7491 Trondheim 	
Norway 
www.ntnu.no/concept	 	
Responsibility for the information in the reports produced on behalf of the Concept Research 
Program is held by the commissioned party. The views and conclusions of the authors are not 
necessarily the same as those of the Concept Research Program. All contributions were reviewed 
in a peer review process.

2 	
 
Concept Report No. 48	 	
Contributors	 	
 
 
Kåre P. Hagen	, Professor 	Emeritus	, Norwegian School of Economics 	
(NHH)	 	
 
Gro Holst Volden	, Research Director,	 Concept	 Research Program, 	
Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)	 	
 
Ståle Navrud	, Professor	, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU)	 	
 
Liv Osland	, Professor, Stord/Haugesund University College	 	
 
Kristin Magnussen	, Economist,	 Vista Analysis	 	
 
Brita Bye	, Senior Researcher,	 Statistics Norway	 	
 
Snorre Kverndokk	, Senior Research Fellow, Frisch Centre	 	
 
Harald Thune	-Larsen	, Chief Research Economist, Institute of Transport 	
Economics	 	
 
Aud Tennøy	, Chief Research Planner, Institute of Transport 	Economics	 	
 
Knut Einar Rosendahl	, Professor, Norwegian University of Life Sciences 	
(NMBU)	 	
 
Igor Sartori	, Senior	 Scientist, 	SINTEF 	Building and Infrastructure	 	
 
Inger Andresen	, Professor, Norwegian University of Science and Technology 	
(NTNU)	 	
 
Jostein 	Lillestøl	, Professor 	Emeritus, Norwegian School of Economics 	
(NHH)	 	
 
Steinar Strøm	, Professor, University of Turin	, and	 Economist,	 Vista Analysis 	 	
 
Fred Wenstøp	, Professor 	Emeritus	, BI Norwegian Business School	 	
 
Iulie Aslaksen	, Senior Researcher, Statistics	 Norway

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Concept Report No. 48	 	
English summary	 	
Introduction	 	
Major investment projects can affect the environment in different ways, in the 
short or long term. 	The s	everity	 and uncertainty 	of their impact	, and the	 	
geographical extent	, may vary. The consequences can be negative	, for example	 	
in terms of emissions that reduce water and air quality, 	the 	destruction of 	
recreation areas, or 	the 	deterioration of the climate and biodiversity. 	However,	 	
they can also be positive, 	such as in the case of	 investments	 in conservation of 	
the sa	me 	assets	. 	
The	 topic of this 	report	 is how environmental impacts 	are 	addressed in project 	
analys	es. To ensure efficient use of resources	, cost	-benefit 	analys	es (CBA	s) are	 	
often	 carried out	, in which	 the environmental effects 	should 	ideally 	be 	included	 	
in 	the same way as	 other 	costs and benefits	 and 	translated into monetary value. 	
There are various valuation techniques for environmental and other public 
goods. In some cases, these provide a good handling of the impacts.	 In other 	
cases, they do not fully 	cover them. S	ome 	mechanisms in nature are 	so 	
compl	ex that 	we do	 not 	fully 	understand them 	with current knowledge	. In 	
light of scientific uncertainty 	coupled with risk aversion, in some cases 	it may 	
be best 	to postpone	 a project that could potentially harm 	the environment 	
until	 more 	accurate and relevant	 information is available	. This is referred to as 	
the precautionary principle. 	CBA	s have	 other inherent 	weaknesses, such as 	
distributional 	concerns not being taken into account	, including impacts	 on 	
later gen	erations 	that	 ‘disappear	’ due to	 discounting.	 	
This 	report	 presents some 	recent	 Norwegian contribution	 to th	e literature	 of 	
project analyses	, from 16 of the leading experts on environmental and project 	
analysis	. The contributions are not limited to 	theoretical	 and methodological 	
issues	, but	 also show	 how 	environmental impacts	 are handled in practice.	 	
In the 	opening	 chapter 	the two	 editors, 	Kåre P. Hagen	 and 	Gro Holst Volden	, 	
provide 	an introduction to 	externalities as phenomenon and different types o	f 	
environmental costs, and discuss	 possible 	ways to solve this type of market 	
failure	. They 	also present	 a summary of the 	individual 	contributions.	 	
The 	anthology	 is divided into three 	sections	. Section 1	 is about valuation of 	
environmental goods in project	 appraisal, 	and presents different valuation 	
techniques used today	. Section 2	 presents different examples and approaches 	
from sectoral areas such as transportation, construction, petroleum	, and 	
energy. Finally, 	section 3	 presents	 alternative	 approaches 	to 	the traditional 	
CBA that may be considered when investments projects have serious 
environmental consequences	.

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Concept Report No. 48	 	
Section 1	 Valuation of environmental goods	 	
The past 20 years 	have seen 	a rapid development 	in methods 	for	 economic 	
valuation 	of 	the environment. 	Four chapters provide a 	sound	 overview of this 	
development	. 	
In Chapter 1, 	Ståle Navrud	 gives an introduction to the theoretical basis for	 	
valuation of environmental goods and th	e willingness	-to-pay	 principle. As a 	
starting point	, the	 ‘physical	’ change in 	the 	quality or scope	 of the 	
environmental good must be established	. For this	 purpose, 	the 	damage 	
function approach	 may be used	; a complementary approach 	in 	recent years 	has 	
been	 the 	‘ecosystem service approach	’, which is 	presented in detail in 	Chapter 	
3. H	owever, it is t	he final 	effect	 on 	people’s 	health and 	welfare	 that	 we	 wish to 	
measure, ideally in monetary terms	. 	
The author	 goes on to introduce the 	principle 	valuation methods	. There are	 	
two main groups	 of these methods	: revealed preference 	(RP) 	methods and 	
stated	 preference 	(SP) 	methods.	 They 	are both intended	 to 	measure people	’s 	
willingness to pay for the changes they perceive	. Wh	ereas	 RP methods are 	
based on people	’s actual behavio	ur in existing markets, SP methods 	are based 	
on hypothetical beh	avio	ur in a hypothetical market for 	the 	environmental 	
good. 	The chapter is 	mainly 	devoted to	 SP methods, 	including 	their 	
applications, quality requirements	, and 	main	 pitfalls. 	However, w	ith limited 	
time and resources 	available 	to 	perform a CBA, original 	valuation studies 	are 	
often not 	realistic	. The 	last part of the 	chapter 	therefore 	presents and discusses 	
various techniques of 	value 	transfer and some important databases 	for	 original 	
valuation studies.	 	
In 	Chapter 2	, Liv Osland	 presents 	a central RP method,	 namely hedonic 	
pricing	, which is 	often applied to the housing market. The market value of a 	
house can be seen as 	a fu	nction of a number of	 attributes	, including 	
characteristics of the	 local environment. Clean air, 	an attractive	 view, 	a quiet	 	
location,	 and	 proximity to recreation areas will normally affect hou	sing	 prices 	
positively, 	and 	the opposite will affect negatively	. Hedonic pricing is a method	 	
that uses 	the 	variations in housing prices to infer value	s of 	the 	different local 	
environmental attributes	 through econometric analysis	. 	
Hedonic pricing	 is widely used internationally, 	but	 the 	number	 of Norwegian 	
studies is limited	, despite	 the fact that 	Norway has	 a free and 	largely 	
unregulated housing market	, in which	 a large share of the population owns the 	
house	 in which they live	. Furthermore, in recent years,	 access to hous	ing	 price 	
data 	has improved considerably, 	in combination 	with exact location 	
information	 in digital maps and through geocoding.

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Concept Report No. 48	 	
Kristin Magnussen	, the author of Chapter 3,	 takes a 	close	r look at the 	
‘ecosystem service approach	’. This is a comprehensive framework for analy	sing 	
and describing 	all 	of 	the services provided by nature, 	ranging from	 food, clean 	
water	, and medic	ines	, to 	recreation services and carbon storage. 	A distinction	 	
shoul	d be made	 between 	the 	natural capital itself and the flow of services 	that 	
it provides. If 	the quality or size of 	this flow is reduced,	 either	 temporarily or 	
permanently, 	the value of 	the 	natural capital	 will be reduced too	. 	
The	 destruction of ecosystems was	 put on the international agenda with 	the 	
UN	’s Millennium Ecosystem Assessment	, which	 has 	described and classified 	
ecosystem services from different habitats. Another important initiative was 
The Economics of Ecosystems and Bi	odiver	sity (TEEB), 	which was 	intended 	
to promote a better understanding of 	the 	value of ecosystems	, especially the 	
economic value	. TEEB has been 	followed up through	 national and 	
international processes for identifying and valuing ecosystem services	, and ha	s 	
led to	 an explosive increase in new valuation studies (especially 	those 	
conducted using	 SP methods).	 In Norway, 	White Paper 	NOU 2013: 10	 was	 	
submitted by	 the	 Ecosystem Service Committee	 (of which	 the author	 was a 	
member	), and	 the	 chapter present	s the com	mittee’s 	key recommendations	. 	
In 	Chapter 4, 	Brita Bye	 introduces and discusses	 the social cost of	 carbon 	(i.e. 	
the soc	io-economic	 consequences of 	greenhouse gas 	(GHG	) emissions	). These 	
emissions differ from most other environmental 	costs,	 due to their	 global, 	
long	-term	, and potentially	 extremely harmful implications	. Since the damage 	
caused 	is largely	 independent of where 	the 	emissions occur, 	a cost	-efficient	 	
climate policy 	is one where	by	 all 	emissions 	incur	 the same price globally. 	 	
However, i	t is 	not 	clear	 which price path 	should be followed	. T	he global 	
marginal damage 	cost is very difficult to measure	. One may instead	 calculate	 	
the marginal abatement cost 	associated with a binding emission	-reduction	s 	
target. 	However,	 the abatement cost	 depend	s hea	vily	 on the target	, such as	 	
domestic 	targets	, multinational	 targets	, and 	global targets	. A starting point 	
could be the two	-degree target, 	which	 the international community	, including 	
Norway	, currently	 supports. Studies of the price path necessary to meet t	he 	
two	-degree 	target show large variations, but most of them state prices high 	
above, for example, the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) allowance 
price, and they show an increasing 	price	 over time.	 	
Section 2	 Handling environmental problems in selected areas	 	
The second 	section 	of the 	report	 consists of seven chapters	 that examine	 	
environmental	 problems in selected situations, sectors	, or projects. The 	
contributions illustrate both practical and 	principal	 chall	enges related to 	the 	
handling of	 environmental impacts in project analys	es and more generally.

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Concept Report No. 48	 	
In Chapter 5	, Snorre Kverndokk	 discuss	es the use of economic instruments in 	
environmental policy. 	Environmental taxes and	 market	-based solutions (such 	
as 	tradable emission 	allowances	) are increasingly 	being 	used	. This	 implies that a 	
price on emissions 	has been	 introduced and will ensure	 the 	cost	-efficient	 	
fulfilment of environmental objectives	. If the target also reflects the 	
population	’s willingness to pay	 to avoid emissions, the price can be us	ed 	
directly in economic analys	es.	 	
Kverndokk draws on a large 	body of 	literature 	when he discusses taxes versus 	
market	-based solutions	. Issues	 such as 	uncertainty	, distribution	al concerns	, and 	
market power in 	allowanc	e markets	 may be relevant	. He also mentions moral 	
arguments 	against	 tradable 	allowances	. The	 EU	’s ETS for greenhouse gas 	
emissions	 has not 	worked as intended	, in that	 a large excess of quotas 	has built 	
up 	and the price is very low. 	There is 	also 	an inherent	 challenge that 	such	 	
system	s have 	limited duration 	and therefore	 the incentives for 	investments in 	
emission reductions	 towards	 the end of the period 	covered by the system 	are 	
small. Most economists seem to conclude that 	a tax is preferable in clima	te 	
policy, and a global carbon tax is 	the 	ideal	. 	
In 	Chapter 6	, Harald Thune	-Larsen	 discusses climate challenges within the 	
framework of	 the transport sector. 	The emissions from this sector are large 	
and 	increasing	. This	 is particularly the case for aviatio	n, but overall it is	 still	 	
road	 traffic that accounts for the largest emissions. With a traditionally strong 	
relationship between GDP and transport 	volumes	, the reference 	scenario 	is 	
that	 traffic	 will increase by more than	 50% 	between	 2010	 and 2050. Improved 	
energy efficiency will limit the 	increase	 in emissions in the first half of th	at 	
period, but 	stronger measures must be implemented 	in order 	to achieve the 	
reductions that experts believe 	are	 necessary.	 	
Thune	-Larsen 	presents 	a number of 	relevant measures	 and their	 effect	s on 	
emissions	 (based on 	simulations with transport model	s). He shows that 	
economic instruments such as 	a CO2 tax 	or an allowance	 price	 will reduce 	
emissions	 if the price is high enough. Emissions can be further reduced in	 	
combination with	, for example,	 differentia	ted	 vehicle taxes	 and parking fees in 	
cities. 	However,	 he warns that 	steadily improved roads with 	higher speeds	 and 	
capacities	, as well as	 major 	investment	 projects at airports	, will limit the effects 	
of such 	measure	s. Increased s	ubsidies for public transport are	 not necessarily 	a 	
cost	-efficient measure	. When it comes to freight transport, 	the b	est solution	 	
seems to be	 a combination of 	optimal pricing	 and 	an 	infrastructure that 	
enables higher frequency and tran	shipment possibilities 	by	 sea	 and rail.	 	
Chapter 7	 is written by 	Aud Tennøy	, who 	elaborate	s on 	emission	-reduct	ion	 	
targets 	in the transport sector, and	 she	 compares with 	practical policies in 	
urban areas. 	In Norway there is a clear goal not to increase car 	traffic in urban

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Concept Report No. 48	 	
areas	. An active land use policy is required 	to attain	 this	 goal	, one	 that 	
facilitates walking, cycling	, and public transport	. This normally implies 	dense 	
cit	ies 	with short 	travelling 	distances	, yet instead	 we 	are 	see	ing	 a development 	
that facilitates urban sprawl and constant growth in traffic.	 	
Tennøy discusses various explanations for this paradox, based on 	her	 doctoral 	
work	. As an example	, throughout the chapter she 	refers to	 the 	E18’s west 	
corridor	, which passes throu	gh	 Oslo	, where there is now a plan to expand the 	
road capacity	, which would 	lead to a significant increase in car traffic	. One 	
explanation	 for the above	-mentioned paradox	 is the 	limited knowledge among 	
planners	, another is	 the conflicting objectives that 	individual 	planners 	have to	 	
deal 	with	. Yet another	 explanation is	 the institutional and organizational 	
conditions	 – there is a need for coordination across sectors, levels	, and 	
administrative boundaries. 	Today, each actor has a narrow focus on 	their	 own 	
ne	eds, and	 the public road authorities are often highly 	dominant in 	this 	
respect	. 	
In 	Chapter 8 	Knut Einar Rosendahl	 discusses 	the environmental impact	s of 	
investment	s in renewable energy technologies	. Renewable energy 	is going to be	 	
important	 in order	 to ob	tain the necessary reductions 	in greenhouse gas 	
emissions	. However,	 according to economic theory it is far better to	 tax 	the 	
negative externalities directly (e.g. GHG emissions) than to subsidize solutions	 	
with 	‘less harmful consequences	’. Renewable energy	, too	, may have some 	
negative environmental impacts, 	such as those	 related to intervention	s in 	
nature.	 	
However, there is an	 argument for 	providing 	subsidi	es when 	technologies 	are	 	
new and immature. 	Private c	ompanies do not have 	the	 incentives to invest 	
suf	ficiently 	in 	R&D and piloting, due to positive externalities (	part of the 	
benefits 	may be reaped by others	). In addition, future climate policy	 is 	
uncertain	. Rosendahl 	summarizes 	recent literature 	that 	show	s how	 subsidizing 	
the development of green technol	ogies may 	make	 economic sense	. However, 	
subsidizing energy 	production	 is another question, which is	 further complicated 	
when 	we take	 into account the effects of other simultaneous instruments, such 	
as taxes and emissions trading schemes.	 	
Chapter 9	, written by 	Igor Sartori	 and 	Inger Andresen	, examines the climate 	
impact of buildings. 	Since the oil crisis in 	the 	19	70s 	there has been a strong 	
focus 	on reducing energy consumption in buildings	 in Norway	, and 	the 	
Government’s 	requirements for new building	s have become increasingly 	strict	. 	
The authors present 	the status of the r	esearch in this area. The ideal is 	the 	
zero	-emission building	 – a building	 with	 minimal need	s for energy and 	that	 	
may even be 	a part	-time 	energy supplier	. It is important to take	 als	o 	
greenhouse gas emissions from 	materials	 into account, and 	these	 will be

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Concept Report No. 48	 	
affected by 	the 	selection of materials, amount of materials, reuse, 	and 	
transportation and maintenance requirements.	 	
Currently	, available 	data 	on the costs of constructing zero	-emission buildings	 	
relative to standard buildings	 are minimal	. Studies suggest 10	–15% additional 	
costs, but most of	 the data come 	from demonstration projects	. The cost of 	
installing solar systems or other renewable energy 	sources 	makes up a large 	
proportio	n of the 	additional	 cost, but it	 has been decreasing over time	, and the 	
authors believe 	that low	- or zero	-emission	 buildings will eventually be 	cost	-	
efficient for house owners	. The total potential for energy and emission 	
reduction	s is significant, and will	 free electricity for activities that are currently 	
based on fossil fuels (such as transport)	, or 	for	 export.	 	
Jostein Lillestøl	, the author of Cha	pter 10, 	takes a closer look at the petroleum 	
sector.	 In this	 sector	, environmental 	and risk 	considerations 	are 	given 	
considerable weight, 	including the risk of 	oil spills. The 	industry itself	 has 	
largely been 	the 	agenda	-setter for conceptual and methodological 	
developme	nts in risk management, it has the precautionary principle	 as a basic 	
premise	, and has develo	ped a strong safety culture. 	This has resulted in an 	
implicit value of a statistical life that is much higher than in most other sectors. 
A key	 explanation is that the industry depends heavily 	on 	trust from	 the 	
authorities and 	the 	population. 	 	
The	 chapter 	presents 	some key risk concepts and a broad picture of 	the 	
emergency 	preparedness for oil spills in Norway	, which comprises	 the 	
regulatory framework, the industry	’s own efforts	, and public emergency 	
preparedness 	in collaboration with the private sector. 	Lillestøl also	 presents the 	
tools and methods used to evaluate and prioritize 	environmental resources, in 	
non	-monetary terms. 	The 	‘value	’ of the resources 	is held up against 	pre	-	
defined	 acceptance criteria for environmental risk. 	Thus	, there is	 a consisten	t 	
system 	for assessing environmental resources, but	 without 	directly involving	 	
the population	’s willingness to pay.	 	
The final chapter in this 	section	 of the 	report	 is written by 	Steinar Strø	m. It 	
presents and discusse	s the highly controversial construction of a new 	overhead 	
power line through the 	scenic	 natural area of Hardanger a few years ago. 	
Opponents 	had 	demanded 	invisible	, underground	 power 	cable	s. The 	
willingness to pay 	in order 	to avoid 	a visible power line	 was 	clearly	 very high	 in 	
some groups. 	However	, the 	additional cost of the 	underground	 cable option 	
was	 estimated to 1.4	-2.4 billion	 NOK	. 	
The author 	adopts	 a critical perspective on the project and the 	CBA	 that was 	
performed. 	The Norwegian 	energy 	agency	 conclud	ed that 	an overhead	 power 	
line	 was 	the most 	profitable	 alternative	. However,	 no attempt was made to

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Concept Report No. 48	 	
estimate the willingness to pay to avoid the lines	. Strøm	 illustrates how 	
different	 alternative combination	s of 	willingness	-to-pay	 per person and the 	
number of 	persons who value	d the area	 would 	have 	result	ed	 in the power line 	
alternative 	becoming	 unprofitable. 	He	 believes that 	a third alternative 	would 	
have been 	more profitable than	 either	 an overhead 	power line 	or 	an 	
undergroud	 powe	r cable, namely a compensation	 plant 	providing voltage 	
support and increasing	 the 	transmission capacity in the existing network. 	This 	
alternative would have been much cheaper and would have given an	 option 	
value compared to building 	new	 lines.	 	
Section 3	 Ot	her	 approaches than the 	cost	-benefit 	analysis	 	
The third and final 	section 	of the 	report	 consists of 	two chapters 	that	 present 	
other perspectives tha	n the	 economic 	one, in which	 the ideal is to estimate the 	
willingness to pay for an environmental good or ecosystem service.	 	
In 	Chapter 12	, Fred Wenstøp	 presents the multi	-criteria decision analysis, 	
which is 	an alternative way to assess and 	compare	 the effects of a project	, 	
including 	its environmental effects	. This method avoids the weigh	ting 	
according to	 the 	population	’s willingness to pay 	for the impacts	, which 	can	 be 	
difficult	 or very costly to measure, 	is often 	unreliable	 (since	 people are not 	
often 	in a position to 	assess 	different types	 of 	environmental 	impacts in 	
monetary terms	), and there are ethical concerns (	rich 	people count more 	than 	
poor	 people	, and	 today	’s generations count more than future	 generations	). 	
A multi	-criteria decision	 analysis 	is based on a set 	of relevant targets, and it 	is 	
rather easy	 to implement because it only requires a panel of decision	-makers or 	
experts. 	However, there are some serious pitfalls, the most important being 	
lack of legitimacy. It is decision	-makers’ preferences that we seek t	o measure, 	
but in practice a panel of experts is used in the valuation process. It may be 
helpful to use several panels to see 	whether	 there are discrepancies in how they 	
value the effects.	 	
The author presents four examples of 	the method 	being used 	on 	projects	 with 	
significant en	vironmental impacts in Norway. In t	wo 	of the studies, the 	
analysis	 was part of a larger valuation study in which people	’s willingness to 	
pay 	was also measured 	directly, 	so that	 the methods 	complemented	 each other.	 	
In the last c	hapter	, Chapter 13,	 Iulie Aslaksen 	presents and 	discuss	es the 	
precautionary principle with a 	special	 focus on climate policy. The core of the 	
precautionary principle is that one should act when the consequences 	can	 be	 	
serious, irreversible	, or morally unac	ceptable, 	even 	though the actual risk is 	
unknown. A strong version of the principle 	even	 implies an 	obligation	 to act. 	
While the traditional 	cost	-benefit 	analysis assumes full substitutability between 	
environmental good	s and money, 	the concept	 of sustainable development	 (the

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Concept Report No. 48	 	
strong version)	 assumes that	 there cannot 	necessarily be compensat	ion for	 	
environmental good	s that are lost	. An important	 implication of this is that it 	
becomes important to 	monitor	 the state 	of critical environmental resource	s in 	
order to capture early warning signals.	 	
The precautionary p	rinciple has been discussed in connection 	with	, for 	
example	, greenhouse gas emissions	, biodiversity loss, genetically modified food 	
and investment	s in flood protection	. Regarding	 climate chang	e, the 	uncertainty 	
about future development 	is particularly 	high	. Over time, the IPCC process 	
and the Stern 	Review	 has 	created political acceptance 	of the development of 	
climate policy. 	However,	 the	 international climate policy 	is not 	sufficiently 	
ambitiou	s to achieve the targets 	that 	researchers 	have found 	necessary. The 	
policy is 	thus 	not sufficient	ly in accordance with the precautionary principle.

Concept report series	 	
Paper version ISSN 0803	-9763	 	
Web version ISSN 0804	-5585	 	
Norwegian 	www.ntnu.no/concept/publikasjoner/rapportserie	 	
English summary 	www.ntnu.edu/concept/publications/report	-series	 	
 
Report	 	Title	 	Author	 	
No	 1 	Styring av prosjektporteføljer i staten. Usikkerhetsavsetning på porteføljenivå	 	
Project Portfolio Management. 	Estimating Provisions for 	Uncertainty at Portfolio Level. 	 	
Stein Berntsen and	 Thorleif 	Sunde	 	
No	 2 	Statlig styring av p	rosjektledelse. Empiri og økonomiske 	prinsipper.	 	
Economic Incentives in Public Project Management	 	
Dag Morten Dalen, Ola Lædre og Christian Riis	 	
No	 3 	Beslutningsunderlag og beslutninger i store statlige investeringsprosjekt	 	
Decisions and the Basis for Deci	sions in Major Public 	Investment Projects	 	
Stein V. Larsen, Eilif Holte	 and	 	Sverre Haanæs	 	
No	 4 	Konseptutvikling og evaluering i store statlige investeringsprosjekt	 	
Concept Development and Evaluation in Major Public Investment Projects	 	
Hege Gry Solheim, Eri	k Dammen, 	Håvard O. Skaldebø, Eystein Myking, Elisabeth K. Svendsen and	 Paul Torgersen	 	
No	 5 	Bedre behovsanalyser. Erfaringer og anbefalinger om behovsanalyser i store offentlige investeringsprosjekt	 	
Needs Analysis in Major Public Investment Projects. Less	ons and Recommendations	 	
Petter Næss	 	
No	 6 	Målformulering i store statlige investeringsprosjekt	 	
Alignment of Objectives in Major Public Investment Projects	 	
Ole Jonny Klakegg	 	
No	 7 	Hvordan trur vi at det blir? 	Effektvurderinger av store 	offentlige prosjekt	 	
Up-front Conjecture of Anticipated Effects of Major Public 	Investment Projects	 	
Nils Olsson	 	
No	 8 	Realopsjoner og fleksibilitet i store offentlige investeringsprosjekt	 	
Real Options and Flexibility in Major Public Investment Projects	 	
Kjell Arne Brekke	 	
No	 9 	Bedre utforming av store offentlige investeringsprosjekter. Vurdering av behov, mål og effekt	 i tidligfasen	 	
Improved Design of Public Investment Projects. Up	-front 	Appraisal of Needs, Objectives and Effects 	 	
Petter Næss med bidrag fra Kjell Arne Brekke, Ni	ls Olsson and	 Ole 	Jonny Klakegg	 	
No	 10 	Usikkerhetsanalyse 	– Kontekst og grunnlag	 	
Uncertainty Analysis 	– Context and Foundations	 	
Kjell Austeng, Olav Torp, Jon Terje Midtbø, I	ngemund 	Jordanger and	 Ole M	 Magnussen	 	
No	 11 	Usikkerhetsanalyse 	– Modellering, esti	mering og beregning	 	
Uncertainty Analysis 	– Modeling, Estimation and 	Calculation	 	
Frode Drevland, Kjell Austeng and	 Olav Torp	 	
No	 12 	Metoder for usikkerhetsanalyse	 	
Uncertainty Analysis 	– Methodology	 	
Kjell Austeng, Jon Terje Mid	tbø, 	Vidar Helland, Olav Torp a	nd 	Ingemund Jordanger

Concept report series	 	
Paper version ISSN 0803	-9763	 	
Web version ISSN 0804	-5585	 	
Norwegian 	www.ntnu.no/concept/publikasjoner/rapportserie	 	
English summary 	www.ntnu.edu/concept/publications/report	-series	 	
 
Report	 	Title	 	Author	 	
No	 13 	Usikkerhetsanalyse 	– Feilkilder i metode og beregning	 	
Uncertainty Analysis 	– Methodological Errors in Data and 	Analysis	 	
Kjell Austeng, Vibeke Binz and	 	Frode Drevland	 	
No	 14 	Positiv usikkerhet og økt verdiskaping	 	
Positive Uncert	ainty and Increasing Return on Investments	 	
Ingemund Jordanger	 	
No	 15 	Kostnadsusikkerhet i store statlige investeringsprosjekter; Empiriske studier basert på KS2	 	
Cost Uncertainty in Large Public Investment Projects. Empirical 	Studies 	 	
Olav Torp (red.), 	Ole 	M 	Magnu	ssen, Nils Olsson and	 Ole 	Jonny Klakegg	 	
No	 16 	Kontrahering i prosjektets tidligfase. Forsvarets anskaffelser. 	 	
Procurement in a Project’s Early Phases. 	Defense 	Aquisitions	 	
Erik N. Warberg	 	
No	 17 	Beslutninger på svakt informasjonsgrunnlag. Tilnærmin	ger 	og utfordringer i prosjekters tidlige fase	 	
Decisions Based on Scant Information. Challenges and Tools During the Front	-end Phases of Projects	 	
Kjell Sunnevåg (red.)	 	
No	 18 	Flermålsanalyser i store statlige investeringsprosjekt 	 	
Multi	-Criteria Decision 	Analysis In Major Public Investment 	Projects	 	
Ingemund Jordange	r, Stein 	Malerud, Harald Minken and	 	Arvid Strand	 	
No	 19 	Effektvurdering av store statlige investeringsprosjekter 	 	
Impact Assessment of Major Public Investment Projects	 	
Bjørn Andersen, Svein Bråt	hen, 	Tom Fagerh	aug, Ola Nafstad, 	Petter Næss and	 Nils Olsson	 	
No	 20 	Investorers vurdering av prosjekters godhet 	 	
Investors’ Appraisal of Project Feasibility	 	
Nils Olsson, Stein Frydenberg, Erik W. Jakobsen, Sve	in Arne 	Jessen, Roger Sørheim and	 	Lillian Waagø	 	
No	 21 	Logisk minimalisme, rasjonalitet 	- og de avgjørende valg	 	
Major Projects: Logical Minimalism, Rationality and Grand Choices	 	
Knut Samset, Arvid Strand and	 	Vincent F. Hendricks	 	
No	 22 	Miljøøkonomi og samfunnsøkonomisk lønnsomhet	 	
Environmental Economic	s and Economic Viability	 	
Kåre P. Hagen	 	
No	 23 	The Norwegian Front	-End Governance Regime of Major 	Public 	Projects 	– A Theoretically Based Analysis and 	Evaluation	 	
Tom Christensen	 	
No	 24 	Markedsorienterte styringsmetoder i miljøpolitikken	 	
Market oriented app	roaches to environmental policy	 	
Kåre P. Hagen	 	
No	 25 	Regime for planlegging og beslutning i sykehusprosjekter	 	
Planning and Decision Making in Hospital Projects. 
Lessons with the Norwegian Governance Scheme.	 	
Asmund Myrbostad, 	Tarald 	Rohde, Pål Martinussen a	nd 	Marte Lauvsnes

Concept report series	 	
Paper version ISSN 0803	-9763	 	
Web version ISSN 0804	-5585	 	
Norwegian 	www.ntnu.no/concept/publikasjoner/rapportserie	 	
English summary 	www.ntnu.edu/concept/publications/report	-series	 	
 
Report	 	Title	 	Author	 	
No	 26 	Politisk styring, lokal rasjonalitet og komplekse koalisjoner	. 	
Tidligfaseprosessen i store offentlige investeringsprosjekter	 	
Political Control, Local Rationality and Complex Coalitions. 
Focus on the Front	-End of L	arge Public Invest	ment P	rojects	 	
Erik Whist and	 Tom Christensen	 	
No	 27 	Verdsetting av fremtiden. 	Tidshorisont og 	
diskonteringsrenter 	 	
Valuing the future. Time Horizon and Discount R	ates	 	
Kåre P. Hagen	 	
No	 28 	Fjorden, byen og operaen. En evaluering av 
Bjørvikautbyggingen i et	 beslutningsteoretisk perspektiv 	
The Fjord, the City and the Opera. An Evaluation of 
Bjørvika Urban D	evelopment	 	
Erik Whist and	 Tom Christensen	 	
No	 29 	Levedyktighet og investeringstiltak. Erfaringer fra 
kvalitetssikring av statlige investeringsprosjekter	 	
Sustainability and Public Investments. Lessons from Major 
Public Investment P	rojects	 	
Ola Lædre, Gro Holst Volden and Tore Haavaldsen	 	
No	 30 	Etterevaluering av s	tatlige investeringsprosjekter. 	
Konklusjoner, erfaringer og råd basert på pilotevaluering av 
fire 	prosjekter	 	
Evaluating Public Investment Projects. Lessons and Advice 
from a Meta	-Evaluation of Four P	rojects	 	
Gro Holst Volden and	 Knut 	Samset	 	
No	 31 	Store statlige investeringers betydning for kon	kurranse	- og 	
markedsutviklingen. 	Håndtering av konkurranseme	ssige 	
problemstillinger i utredningsfasen	 	
Major Public Investments' Impact on C	ompetition. 	How to 	
Deal with Competition I	ssue	s as Part of the P	roject 	
Appraisal	 	
Asbjørn Englund, 	Harald Bergh, 	Aleksander Møll and	 Ove Skaug 	Halsos	 	
No	 32 	Analyse av s	ystematisk usikkerhet i norsk økonomi.	 	
Analysis of Systematic Uncertainty in the Norwegian 
Economy.	 	
Haakon Vennemo, Michael Hoel and	 Henning Wahlquist	 	
No	 33 	Planprosesser, beregningsverktøy og bruk av nytte	-	
kostnadsanalyser i vegsektor	en. En sammenlikning 	av 	
praksis i Norge og Sverige.	 	
Planning, Analytic T	ools	 and the Use of Cost	-Benefit 	
Analysis	 in the Transport S	ector in 	Norway and Sweden.	 	
Morten We	lde, Jonas Eliasson, 	James Odec and	, Maria 	Börjesson	 	
No	 34 	Mulighetsrommet. En studie om konseptutredninger	 og 	
konseptvalg	 	
The Opportunity Space. A Study of Conceptual Appraisals 
and the Choice of Conceptual S	olutions.	 	
Knut Samset, Bjørn Andersen and	 Kjell Austeng	 	
No	 35 	Statens prosjektmodell. Bedre kostnadsstyring. Erfaringer 
med de første investeringstiltake	ne som har vært g	jennom 	
ekstern kvalitetssikring	 	
Knut Samset and	 Gro Holst 	Volden

Concept report series	 	
Paper version ISSN 0803	-9763	 	
Web version ISSN 0804	-5585	 	
Norwegian 	www.ntnu.no/concept/publikasjoner/rapportserie	 	
English summary 	www.ntnu.edu/concept/publications/report	-series	 	
 
Report	 	Title	 	Author	 	
No	 36 	Investing for I	mpact. Lessons with	 the Norwegian State 	
Project Model	 and the First Investment Projects that Have 	
Been Subjected to External Quality A	ssurance	 	
Knut Sams	et and	 Gro Holst 	Volden	 	
No	 37 	Bruk av karbonpriser i prakti	ske samfunnsøkonomiske 	
analyser. 	En oversikt over praksis fra analyser av statlige 	
investeringsprosjekter under KVU	-/KS1	-ordningen	. 	
Use of C	arbon 	Prices in Cost	-Benefit A	nalysis. 	Practices in 	
Proj	ect Appraisals of Major Public Investment P	rojects 	
under the Norwegian State Project Model	 	
Gro Holst Volden	 	
No	 38 	Ikke	-prissatte virknin	ger i samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. 	
Praksis og erf	aringer i statlige investerings	prosjekter 	 	
Non	-Monetized I	mpac	ts in Econ	omic A	nalysis. 	Practice and 	
Lessons from Public Investment P	rojects	 	
Heid	i Bull	-Berg, Gro Holst Volden 	and	 Inger Lise Tyholt Grindvoll	 	
No 39	 	Lav prising 	– store valg. En studie av underestimering av 	
kostnader i prosjekters tidligfase	 	
Low estimates 	– high s	takes. A study of underestimation of 	
costs in projects' earliest phase	 	
Morten Wel	de, Knut Samset, 	Bjørn Andersen and	 Kjell Austeng	 	
No 40	 	Mot sin hensikt. Perverse insentiver 	– om offentlige 	
investeringsprosjekter som ikke forplikter	 	
Perverse incentives an	d counterproductive investments. 	
Public funding without liabilities for the recipients	 	
Knut Samset, Gro Holst Volden, Morten Welde and Heidi Bull	-	Berg	 	
No 41	 	Transportmodeller på randen. 	En utforsking av NTM5	-	
modellens anvendelsesområde	 	
Transport models an	d extreme scenarios. A test of the 	
NTM5 model	 	
Christian Steinsland and Lasse Fridstrøm	 	
No 42	 	Brukeravgifter i veisektoren	 	
User fees in the road sector	 	
Kåre Petter Hagen and	 Karl Rolf 	Pedersen	 	
No 43	 	Norsk vegplanlegging: Hvilke hensyn styrer anbefalingene	 	
Ro	ad Planning in Norway: What governs the selection of 	
projects?	 	
Arvid Strand, Silvia O	lsen, 	Merethe Dotterud Leiren and	 	Askill Harkjerr Halse	 	
No 44	 	Ressursbruk i transportsektoren 	– noen mulige forbedringer	 	
Resource allocation in the transport sector 	– some potential 	
improvements	 	
James Odeck (ed.) and	 Morten 	Welde (	ed.)	 	
No 45	 	Kommunale investeringsprosjekter. Prosjektmodeller og 
krav til beslutningsunderlag.	 	
Municipal investment practices in Norway	 	
Morten Welde, Jostein Aksdal and	 Inger Lise Tyholt Grin	dvoll	 	
No 46	 	Styringsregimer for store offentlige prosjekter. En 
sammenliknende studie av pri	nsipper og praksis i seks 	
land.	 	
Knut Samset, Gro Holst Volden, Nils Olsson and Eirik Vårdal Kvalheim	 	
No 47	 	Governance schemes for major public investment projects	: 	
A comparative study of principles and practices in six 	
Knut Samset, Gro Holst Volden, Nils Olsson and Eirik Vårdal

Concept report series	 	
Paper version ISSN 0803	-9763	 	
Web version ISSN 0804	-5585	 	
Norwegian 	www.ntnu.no/concept/publikasjoner/rapportserie	 	
English summary 	www.ntnu.edu/concept/publications/report	-series	 	
 
Report	 	Title	 	Author	 	
countries	 	Kvalheim	 	
No 48	 	Investerings	prosjekter og miljøkonsekvenser. 	En antologi 	
med bidrag fra 16	 forskere	 	
Environmental impact	 of large	 investment projects. 	 	
An anthology by 16 Norwegian experts	 	
Kåre P. Hagen (ed.) and Gro Holst Volden (ed.)

Forskningsprogrammet Concept skal utvikle 
kunnskap som sikrer bedre ressursutnytting og 
effekt av store, statlige investeringer. Program	-	
met driver følgeforskning knyttet til de største 
statlige investeringsprosjektene over en rekke 
år. En skal trekke erfaringer fra disse som kan 
bedre utformingen og kvalitetssikringen av nye 
investeringsprosjekter før de settes i gang. 
 
Concept er lokalisert ved Norges teknisk-natur	-	
vitenskapelige universitet i Trondheim (NTNU), 
ved Fakultet for ingeniørvitenskap og teknologi. 
Programmet samarbeider med ledende norske 
og internasjonale fagmiljøer og universiteter, og 
er ﬁnansiert av Finansdepartementet.
Adress:
The Concept Research Program
Høgskoleringen 7A
N-7491 NTNU
Trondheim
NORWAY
ISSN: 0803-9763 (papirversjon)
ISSN: 0804-5585 (nettversjon)
ISBN: 978-82-93253-51-8 (papirversjon)
ISBN: 978-82-93253-52-5 (nettversjon)	
The Concept research program aims to develop 
know-how to help make more efﬁcient use of 
resources and improve the effect of major public 
investments. The Program is designed to follow 
up on the largest public projects over a period of 
several years, and help improve design and quality 
assurance of future public projects before they are 
formally approved. 
The program is based at The Norwegian University 	 	
of Science and Technology (NTNU), Faculty of 
Engineering Science and Technology. It cooperates 
with key Norwegian and international professional 
institutions and universities, and is ﬁnanced by the 
Norwegian Ministry of Finance.	
www.ntnu.no/concept
Concept report No 48	
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Torbjørn Aass
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